It’s a new year, and already the world’s off to a rough start. Last night I found myself telling a friend about my predictions for 2010. They’re bleak. Maybe I have a fascination with the macabre and apocalyptic. But remember, if any of them turn out to be true, you saw it here first.
Word of caution: I am not an expert in foreign affairs or political science. I’m writing this so I can claim bragging rights later.
- Something’s gotta give in Iran. Iran’s six-month long protests are getting worse and worse. I’ve seen videos of demonstrators fighting police and burning cars and of police running over a man lying in the street. It all started with the controversial 2009 presidential election results when a former Iranian prime minister, Mir Hussein Moussavi, ran against incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Moussavi supporters believed the election was fixed against them. I won’t recap the events since you can find the Times sums them up nicely. The next two months will be crucial in determining how the conflict progresses. The 31st anniversary of the exile of the Shah of Iran is coming up in mid-January, and more protestors are likely to take to the streets for the occasion. The government will either crackdown hard or the demonstrations will gain steam with higher profile people jumping in revealing a bigger schism within the nation.
- More American youth influenced by Islamic fundamentalists. The numbers in the two months alone show an increasing trend: Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, Nidal Malik Hasan, the 5 Virginia kids detained in Pakistan with plans to join a militant group, etc.
- Increased breadth of “war on terror.”This is long-term. We’ll see it more likely in the next decade.
- Erosion of American citizens’ rights as the feds increasingly struggle to identify extremist individuals who hold American citizenship.
List your own bleak or happy predictions below.
One Comment
I agree with you about your first prediction–we could see 天安门 2010 in Iran (things seem headed that way) or something hopefully less violent–but I disagree with the other predictions.
I think we might see an increased tendency in mentally unstable individuals joining with Islamic fundamentalists, but I don’t think it will necessarily be all or mostly youth. Sure, youth tend to be fairly unstable, but they don’t hold a monopoly on it.
And while the war in Afghanistan might intensify, I don’t think the “war on terror” will necessarily mirror that. Sure, our primary enemies in Afghanistan are terrorists, but I think we’re going to see our objectives there change from eliminating terrorism (which might actually be counterproductive) to establishing a functional government and security in the region. I think we’ll probably focus more on getting the Afghans to fight their own terrorists than fighting them ourselves.
As for your last prediction, I rather foresee an erosion of confidence in the Obama Administration as they more or less maintain Bush-level executive (and often unconstitutional) powers instead of restraining them like all the liberals who voted for Obama wanted to see. I think his confidence ratings are falling not because the majority of Americans think he’s getting us deeper and deeper into shit as Bush did (though the tea partiers certainly think he’s destroying the very fabric of the country) but just not getting us out of shit fast enough. It seems that people are already starting to blame Obama for things that happened during the end of Bush’s term (e.g. the economic crisis and the 2008 bailout), so if Obama doesn’t get things together quickly, he might see trouble.
As for my own unrelated predictions, I foresee:
- a slow return in consumer confidence as the recession recedes
- an increasing polarization or bubble-ization of society and politics as the internet enables people to lose touch with society at large
- a lesser reliance on and increased skepticism and fact-checking of mainstream media sources
- perhaps an increase in the visibility and viability of political parties other than Democrats and Republicans–I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sarah Palin or someone else running as a “tea party” candidate (for 2012 I suppose), and perhaps someone else running for some sort of “progressive” party (more liberal than Democrats)
- some really cool science discoveries will be made (if you’re a science nerd like me, then this is almost a given)
- the nation’s general science illiteracy and inability to think rationally will get us into some trouble (also almost a given)
- barring a major invention/discovery that creates a short-term economic incentive to invest in alternative energies or a horrible natural disaster with massive casualties directly and obviously linkable with global warming, society at large and politicians will continue to do nothing about global warming